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Analysis of 2018 China's electrolytic aluminum carbon anode and petroleum coke

I. Current status of petroleum coke market for anode carbon production of electrolytic aluminum

1. Classification of China Petroleum Coke Model Number
At present, the raw material ratio of prebaked anodes is 85%, the main raw material petroleum coke accounts for 85%, coal tar pitch accounts for 16.5% and others. Since petroleum coke accounts for a large proportion, the quality index of petroleum coke directly determines the pre-preparation. The quality of the baked anode. According to the division of China Petroleum Coke Industry Standard NB/SH/T 0527-2015, petroleum coke is mainly divided into 1A-3B#, which is suitable for ordinary petroleum coke (raw coke) used for ordinary power graphite electrode, aluminum carbon material and so on. Needle-shaped petroleum coke (raw coke) of ultra-high power, high-power graphite electrode raw materials. Since the petroleum coke content of coking in China's petrochemical plants is getting higher and higher, it has supplemented 4A-6# for a small amount of carbon (electrode paste, carbon brick, cathode carbon block, etc.) products, most of which are used in the fuel industry. .

2. China's petroleum coke supply in recent years
China's delayed coking capacity is composed of Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC and local refineries. In the past five years, the growth of the three major groups has been limited, and the main growth is reflected in local refineries. In 2012-2017, the delayed coking capacity increased by 20.66 million tons/year, of which local refineries increased by 17.33 million tons/year.

In 2017, the total output of China's petroleum coke was 27.738 million tons, of which the amount of prebaked anode available was 2,534,580 tons. Since 2017, the price of 1# petroleum coke has been too high, and the prebaked anode enterprises are completely unbearable, and so far the refinery has not adjusted the target market to the acceptable range of the prebaked anode industry. The low sulfur coke of CNOOC and some refineries in Shandong refinery also have a price exceeding the level of prebaked anode. However, in the case of market changes, the refinery adjusts the sales strategy and price, and the prebaked anode enterprises can produce in a small proportion.

2. National standard of prebaked anode and physical and chemical index of anode for electrolytic aluminum

With the goal of national environmental protection “green mountains and green waters”, the environmental protection supervision departments are increasingly strict with the emission requirements of manufacturing enterprises. For carbon companies, in 2015, the company's requirements for sulfur dioxide emissions within 400 and the latest special emission requirements for 2018 are 50 PPM, which makes it difficult for companies to choose raw materials. On the one hand: controlling costs, in terms of the current prebaked anode price, too high raw materials make the cost increase, and the transaction price reverses the enterprise's loss seriously; on the other hand: it also needs to meet the national requirements for carbon emission.

Considering only the production side, 1#-5# sponge coke can be used for prebaked anode production. According to the specific requirements of the product, low- and high-sulfur petroleum coke can be mixed for production. However, considering that graphite electrodes and recarburizers also use 1# petroleum coke, and the price level is higher than that of prebaked anodes, as well as the regional distribution and transportation radius of petroleum coke downstream industries, China prebaked anodes can use petroleum in addition to Northeast China. Petroleum cokes other than a few refineries such as Fushun Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, Jinzhou Petrochemical, Jinxi Petrochemical, and Liaohe Petrochemical. Domestic environmental protection requirements are getting higher and higher. In the local environmental inspection, manufacturers in some areas have also reduced petroleum coke with excessive sulfur content, that is, petroleum coke with sulfur content >=7%.

Third, the current status of sulfur content in the production enterprises of prebaked anodes

Since 2016, the environmental protection policy has gradually started to increase the emission requirements for electrolytic aluminum and carbon enterprises. In order to control the emission, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have higher and higher requirements for sulfur in prebaked anodes. The production of prebaked anode production enterprises mainly uses electrolytic aluminum. The requirements of enterprises are mainly. At present, only a small number of enterprises require sulfur to be within 3, and other enterprises require 2.5 or less.

Fourth, the application of low sulfur petroleum coke in prebaked anode

Low-sulfur petroleum coke is very favorable for the production of pre-baked anode from the index. Various indicators are more suitable for production. 1# average price and 2# average price before 2017, the maximum price difference is 300 yuan/ton, starting in 2017## The price rose wildly, the highest price difference was close to 2,000 yuan / ton, and the lowest price difference was also 600 yuan / ton, seriously out of the range of conventional prebaked anode petroleum coke. It can be seen from the proportion of petroleum coke production models that the petroleum coke for prebaked anodes is mainly 3#-4#. Even if low sulfur coke is blended, the sulfur content of the actual calcined coke and prebaked anode is already sulfur and high sulfur. Mainly.

V. Reasons for low-sulfur prebaked anodes in the market

The pre-baked anode sulfur content traded on the market is between 1.5 and 3.5, and the production of ultra-low sulfur (0.5-1) is almost non-existent. The main reason for the low sulfur prebaked anodes is that the low sulfur coke yield is low and the cost is high, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises cannot accept the price. The sulfur content and the cost of the prebaked anode are listed in the table below.

In June 2018, the average ex-baked anode price of China's prebaked anodes was 3,200 yuan. It can be seen from Table 4 that if the production only uses No.1 and No.2, then for the prebaked anode production enterprises, only production reduction and shutdown will be carried out. the reason:
1. The cost is too high and the company will lose all;
2. The supply of petroleum coke cannot meet the needs of the market, so the price will become higher and higher;
3. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises are affected by high-cost raw materials to reduce production.

Conclusion
1. Most of the low-sulfur coke on the market is used in the production of carbon for steel, graphite electrode, carbon electrode and carbon-reinforcing agent. The graphite electrode has higher requirements on raw material petroleum coke, and can only use low sulfur with sulfur content of about 0.5. Petroleum coke is produced.
2. As far as the current market demand and economy are concerned, prebaked anode enterprises can only use medium and high sulfur petroleum coke to produce prebaked anodes to meet the demand of electrolytic aluminum.
3. Electrolytic aluminum enterprises cannot withstand high-priced prebaked anodes, and generally do not use low-sulfur prebaked anodes for production.

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