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Weekly analysis: China's prebaked anode price market review (2018.09.27)

This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market was running smoothly. The heating season is approaching, and the environmental protection policy and the limited production ratio are the focus of the industry. At present, the “2+26 and surrounding areas” autumn and winter tackling schemes have been released, and specific implementation measures will be released one after another. It is reported that enterprises in Henan Province are actively rectifying and reforming, and will continue to accept and accept in October to determine the ratio of production restrictions; Zibo area will not limit production.

Starting situation:
Four enterprises in Hebei, Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon, regular production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfengsheng block is all for Qinghai and peak, Hebei area for the national three, the country five car transport restrictions, autumn The winter tackling plan has been released; the Shanxi region is weakly started, Danyuan roasting is being opened, some electrodes are being used, and the Guanlan plan enterprise is undergoing transformation, and the electrode paste or roasting electrode is planned to be determined. The inspection in Hubei is strict, and the production of Hubei Tailai carbon is reduced. In the renovation of environmental protection equipment, enterprises have a small amount of inventory; in Guizhou, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant relocated, no output; in Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrode, roasting a small amount, Huihao environmental protection equipment renovation, August Shutdown maintenance, Henan Yuhui, Zhengzhou Great Wall discontinued; Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50%, bamboo forest Sasin outside processing carbon block. In the southwestern part of the country, some enterprises have reduced production, and the carbon blocks of individual anodes are upgraded due to environmental protection reasons or the electrolytic cell is overhauled.

Cost aspect:
Petroleum coke: petroleum coke for prebaked anode: This week, the price of petroleum coke market began to bottom out, mainly reflected in local refineries. Sinopec's refinery's petroleum coke remained stable this week, with a slight downward adjustment. PetroChina's refinery's coke price remained stable. More, CNOOC this week, two refineries started working. In detail, Sinopec's refinery's petroleum coke is only 20-40 yuan/ton in the two refineries of Gaoqiao and Guangzhou, and the price of Lanzhou petrochemical in the northwest of CNPC is raised by 60 yuan/ton. CNOOC Binzhou Zhonghai and Zhoushan Petrochemical re-pricing this week. The price has dropped before the stoppage. In terms of refining, the price of this week has risen and fallen by 50-100 yuan/ton.

Coal bitumen:
This week, the coal tar pitch market has been pushed up, and it has been actively promoted. The atmosphere of negotiations has been strong, and attention has been paid to the establishment of purchasing prices for key enterprises. The cost pressure of coal tar pitch manufacturers is obvious. In October, the equipment maintenance plan increased, and the increase was more confident. Late forecast: It is expected that the coal tar pitch market will go up and the increase will be a game. The raw material price is high before the holiday, and the price reduction may not be ruled out after the holiday. The supply of coal tar will be reduced in October. There are still restrictions on the terminal market.

Supply side:
According to statistics, in August 2018, China's total output of prebaked anodes was 1,543,600 tons, of which commercial anodes were 751,500 tons, and supporting anodes were 799,800 tons. The increase was 0.77 million tons in July, an increase of 0.5%. In August, the output increased slightly compared with the output in July. Some enterprises in the Gongyi area of ​​Henan resumed production and the production capacity was released. The overall output increased compared with July. However, the enterprises supporting the anodes have stopped production and repaired zero production, resulting in a small increase in the overall supply of the market.

Resumption:
Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial tank repairs. Linfeng Aluminium, in addition to the wheel repair, the rest of the production capacity is basically resumed. Some of the long-slots in Longquan, Henan Province were overhauled, and the rest of the production was completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons. Henan Zhongfu began to resume production in late April, and began to resume production in late April. The resumption of production was completed and the remaining rounds were repaired. Henan Wanji Aluminum completed the resumption of production in mid-May and now has a production capacity of 570,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production.

New production:
The remaining 88 troughs of Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials No. 2 Plant began to be launched one after another and are currently in operation. Shaanxi Meixin began commissioning equipment on September 15 and is expected to start production in November. Chinalco China Resources 1st and 8th District 125,000 tons was officially put into operation on May 19th. The current operating capacity is 80,000 tons, which is temporarily stable. It is expected to continue production in October. The 125,000 tons of network fee in the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been resolved, and it is expected to be completed in mid-October. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum, on September 5, new production capacity began to be put into production. Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. started power supply in late July and is expected to start production to around 150,000 tons during the year. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in Guizhou Xingren's first stage was suspended again and is expected to continue in early November. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons of production, and the second phase has not yet started production. The current funding problem has been reduced. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd., with a current operating capacity of 90,000 tons, is now temporarily put into operation due to the price of electricity. Guangxi Suyuan Investment Series 100,000 tons began to continue construction, is expected to start production at the end of October, completed production within the year. A series of 100,000 tons of Guangxi Debao 100 mine started production on April 7, 2018. The current operating capacity is 65,000 tons, which is expected to be completed in October. A series of 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin Baiyuan Mine in Guangxi began production in early May 2018 and is currently in slow production. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai has completed production in early May and now has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Heqing Yixin is expected to start production in October 2018.

Market outlook:
The price of raw petroleum coke stopped falling, the price of coal tar pitch was stable, and the support of anode cost was stable. The enthusiasm of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises was not reduced, mainly for stocking in winter, which was good for anode consumption. In addition, the maintenance of individual anodes for supporting anodes To increase anode consumption, there will be a small price increase in the short-term market, which is about 100 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, the development will be subject to the implementation of environmental protection policies and the multi-faceted price of raw materials.

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