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2018.10.28 China's prebaked anode market week review for electrolytic aluminum

2018.10.28 This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market remained stable and the market was trading normally. Production: The production of enterprises in Shandong is normal. Except for Zibo, the heating season policy has not been released; the Henan area has implemented heavy pollution weather control, and enterprises have pressure production. In Zhengzhou, it is reported that carbon enterprises have achieved ultra-low emission limit of 50%. Otherwise, the production is suspended, and the company has not received the notice yet, to be confirmed. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum continued to run at a low level, and the company's production reduction and repair plan increased.

Start-up situation: Hebei area: Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon conventional, normal production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfeng raw blocks are all for Qinghai and peak, Hebei heating season adopts "step A\B\C" Production is limited; enterprises in Shanxi are weakly started, Danyuan roasting is underway, some electrodes are being used, and Guanlan plans to transform enterprises; Jiangsu enterprises are producing normally, “Yangtze River autumn and winter plan has been released”, and production in Jiangsu will be affected during the heating season. limit. Hubei Province has strict inspection, Hubei Tailai carbon production is low; Guizhou area, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant relocation, no output; Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrode, roasting a small amount; Henan Yuhui, Zhengzhou Great Wall aluminum During the suspension of production, the specific start-up time is to be determined. In Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50% of the operation, and the bamboo blocks were processed outside the bamboo block. Some enterprises have passed the inspection. In the southwestern region, some enterprises have reduced production; in the normal production of enterprises in Shandong, the output of individual enterprises has fluctuated. The supply of carbon blocks for individual anodes of supporting anodes was slightly reduced due to the downstream start-up, and the Yellow River Xinye carbon molding technology reform was officially put into operation.

Message:
1. The notice of the implementation plan for the implementation of the peak production regulation of industrial enterprises in the heating period of 2018-2019 during the reporting period of 2018-2019 indicates that the carbon enterprises used for electrolytic aluminum are limited to 50%. The production line is stable and achieves ultra-low emission (particles, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides are not higher than 10, 35, 50 mg/m3 respectively), and the production is limited to 50% in the non-ferrous recycling industry. Production line meter.
2. The Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas has been released, and the implementation of differentiated peak production control.
3, "The Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter air pollution tough battle to seek comments released", involving Jiangsu, Hubei.
4. “Notice on the Implementation Plan of the Three-Year Action Plan for Jiangsu Province to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, to achieve ultra-low emission can not limit production.

Cost aspect:
Petroleum coke for prebaked anode: The price of petroleum coke in this week has risen slightly, the downstream carbon enterprises have entered the period of replenishment, some petroleum refinery stocks in low refineries are low, and the resources of low-sulfur petroleum coke in aluminum are tight. Promote the price increase of the petroleum coke market. In detail, the price of petroleum coke in Sinopec's refinery was stable this week. The refinery's coke price in some areas was slightly pushed up by RMB 10-20/ton. This week, the price of petroleum coke in the northwest of China Petroleum was pushed up by RMB 50-200/ About ton, the high price of CNOOC's refinery in the previous period fell significantly this week. This week, the refinery petroleum coke market was trading well, and the coke price rose by 20-80 yuan/ton.

Coal tar pitch: This week, the coal tar pitch market is at a high level, and the new moon order negotiation will begin in the latter part of the year; raw materials will rise and fall this week. Coal and coal are waiting to see the mood. Market outlook: Coal tar pitch is expected to increase at a low level and be consolidated at a high level.

Supply: According to Baichuan Information, in September 2018, the total output of China's prebaked anodes was 1,560,500 tons, of which 740,500 tons of commercial anodes and 802,000 tons of anodes were increased by 16,900 tons from August, an increase of 1.09%. . The output in September increased slightly compared with the output in August. The main reason was that the output of individual anode enterprises increased, and the output of commercial anode enterprises increased and decreased, which was the same as last month.

Production cuts: Shanxi Taiyuan East Aluminum was shut down on the 23rd due to sulfur emission, and the production capacity was 85,000 tons before the shutdown. In the implementation of Gansu Dongxing Aluminum's planned inspection and correction, the production will be reduced by 300,000 tons. Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) Branch slightly reduced production due to tight supply of electricity. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has stopped production of 100,000 tons due to funding problems. Linfeng Aluminium Electric has started to cut 60,000 tons due to losses, and will stop production. Henan Zhongfu actively reduced production by 100,000 tons due to loss, and is currently working about 300,000 tons. Due to environmental inspections, Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power is expected to shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons, and is currently operating at 130,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum has all stopped, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons, and started production capacity of 60,000 tons before production stoppage. Chinalco has lost about 160,000 tons of electricity due to electricity prices. Henan Shenhuo reduced production by about 120,000 tons, and its current operating capacity is 210,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to indicators. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. all stopped, and the index was transferred to Meixin. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum is expected to withdraw from the market in 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons. The Chinalco Guizhou branch retreated to the city and the production capacity of 150,000 tons has been reduced.

Resumption of production: Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. Henan Zhongfu has resumed production of 60,000 tons, and will resume production of 50,000 tons. Henan Wanji Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and now has a production capacity of 550,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production. Yichuan Power Yugang Longquan Aluminum has some tank repairs, and the rest of the production has been completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons.

New production: Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons. The second series of Guangxi Suyuan Investment is expected to start production at the end of October and will be completed during the year. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in Guangxi Debao 100 Mine started up. It is expected that the second series will be 125,000 tons at the end of November. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin Baiyuan Mine in Guangxi is expected to be completed at the end of November. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has completed production and has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. The 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been completed and put into production. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in the first phase of Guizhou Xingren Denggao New Material was once again delayed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials Co., Ltd. began to start the remaining 88 tanks on the 21st of the second plant, and has completed production. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal has a current operating capacity of 100,000 tons, and is now temporarily put into operation due to power problems. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy has already put into operation 200,000 tons. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year and will be put into production of 50,000 tons. Shaanxi Meixin is expected to start production in November. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum has a production capacity of 170,000 tons. Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. put into operation 100,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to put into operation 150,000 tons, and it is expected that it will not be put into production within 2018.

Forecast: The price of raw petroleum coke is rising, the price of coal tar pitch continues to rise, the pressure of prebaked anode cost increases, and the support price; the enthusiasm of downstream aluminum smelting enterprises in winter procurement is slower than that of the same period of last year, but if the policy of Zhengzhou heating season is emulated by other cities, prebake The anode production limit in winter will be greater than the previous forecast of differential peaks, and the procurement of aluminum plants will increase. On the whole, the price of short-term prebaked anodes will be stable, and next month will approach the heating season, the policy will gradually become clear, subject to raw materials and Downstream consumption stimulates, prices may fluctuate.

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