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2018.11.11 Weekly Review: China Prebaked Anode Price Market

2018.11.11 This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market remained stable, and the overall market trading volume was relatively stable. The price of raw material petroleum coke is stable, the price of coal tar is rising, and the support of cost is limited. The heating season is approaching, the Shandong area can not exceed the standard, and Zhengzhou Dachao still has a low production limit of 50%. However, the company has limited operating rate and limited supply side. The environmental inspections in Hebei, Jiangsu and Hubei are still strict. Due to the reduction in electricity prices, the carbon plant has been shut down since the 6th.

Start-up situation: Hebei area: Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon conventional, normal production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfeng raw blocks are all for Qinghai and peak; Shanxi enterprises start weaker, Danyuan roasting is open, do Part of the electrode; the production of enterprises in Jiangsu area is normal, and the environmental protection pressure is still relatively large. Hubei Province has strict inspection, Hubei Tailai carbon production is low, can undertake the processing business, Yangxin Liyu carbon is suspended in environmental protection transformation; Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain, Wenxian Oriental generation processing electrode, a small amount of roasting; Zhengzhou Great Wall Aluminum has been ignited and resumed. In Gongyi District, Jinyu started about 50%, and Zhulin Saxin has processed carbon blocks. Some enterprises have been ultra-low-checked. In addition to Zhengzhou, Henan Province has low emission limits. In the southwestern part of the country, some enterprises have reduced production; in the normal production of enterprises in Shandong, the ultra-low emission of heating season can not be restricted. The supply of carbon blocks for individual anodes of the supporting anodes was slightly reduced due to the downstream construction. After the technical transformation of the carbon forming technology of the Yellow River was officially put into operation, the carbon in Chinalco will be shut down.

Message:
1. The notice of the implementation plan for the implementation of the peak production regulation of industrial enterprises in the heating period of 2018-2019 during the reporting period of 2018-2019 indicates that the carbon enterprises used for electrolytic aluminum are limited to 50%. The production line is stable and achieves ultra-low emission (particles, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides are not higher than 10, 35, 50 mg/m3 respectively), and the production is limited to 50% in the non-ferrous recycling industry. Production line meter.
2. The Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas has been released, and the implementation of differentiated peak production control.
3, "The Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter air pollution tough battle to seek comments released", involving Jiangsu, Hubei.
4. “Notice on the Implementation Plan of the Three-Year Action Plan for Jiangsu Province to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, to achieve ultra-low emission can not limit production.
5. Zhengzhou City Environmental Pollution Prevention and Control Leading Group Office

Cost: petroleum coke for prebaked anode: The mainstream price of petroleum coke in this week is stable and downward. Due to the downside of the downstream market, shipments in the petroleum coke market have slowed down this week. Most refineries have inventories, but prices In this regard, the mainstream remained steady this week, and some refineries' coke prices have declined. In addition, this week, the northwest region was supported by winter stocks, and the price of petroleum coke in the refineries in the northwest region continued to perform strongly. Coal tar pitch: This week, the coal tar pitch market has been consolidated and operated. The high level in the previous period has gradually faded out, the actual transaction has stabilized, and some higher price offers have been reported. It is expected that the actual trading of coal tar will also fluctuate within a narrow range in the next week. However, under the pressure of lowering raw materials, there is no possibility of a narrow range of looseness in the high position, and the fluctuation range is limited in the short term, or accumulated at around 50 yuan/ton.

Supply: According to statistics, in October 2018, the total output of China's prebaked anode market was 1,161,400 tons (including commercial anodes of 775,200 tons and supporting anodes of 836,200 tons), an increase of 61,100 tons or 3.94% from September. The output in October increased slightly compared with the output in September. The main reason was that the output of individual anode enterprises increased, and the output of commercial anode enterprises increased steadily.

Downstream demand:
Production reduction: Gansu Liancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. decided that the remaining 168 sets of 500KA electrolyzers should be shut down due to the price of electricity, involving a production capacity of 220,000 tons. Shanxi Taiyuan East Aluminum Aluminum was shut down due to sulfur emission problems. Gansu Dongxing Aluminum plans to reduce production by 300,000 tons. Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) Branch have slightly reduced production due to tight supply of electricity. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has all stopped production. Linfeng Aluminium Power Co., Ltd. all stopped production due to losses. Henan Zhongfu Industrial actively reduced production by 100,000 tons due to losses. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminum Electric is expected to shut down 40,000 tons due to environmental inspection. Zouping Aluminum has all stopped production, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons. Henan Shenhuo (Group) Co., Ltd. reduced production by about 120,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental Hope Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. is expected to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to indicators. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. stopped. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum is expected to withdraw from the market in 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons. The production capacity of Chinalco Guizhou's 150,000 tons has been reduced.

Resumption of production: Inner Mongolia Jinlian aluminum gradually began to resume production. Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and partial trough repairs. Henan Zhongfu has resumed production of 60,000 tons, and will resume production of 50,000 tons. Henan Wanji Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and now has a production capacity of 550,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production. Yugang Longquan Aluminum Co., Ltd. has repaired some of the troughs and completed the rest of the production. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons.

New production: Guangxi Hualei new material four-stage 100,000 tons is expected to start production on November 10. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has completed 100,000 tons of production. Guangxi Suyuan II series began to build 100,000 tons. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in Guangxi Debao Baiyuan Mine was started. It is expected to start the second series of 125,000 tons at the beginning of December. A series of electric power projects in Guangxi Tianlin Baiyuan Mine are expected to be completed at the end of November. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. The 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been completed and put into production. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in the first phase of Guizhou Xingren Denggao New Material was once again delayed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials No. 2 Plant was completed and put into production. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal has a current operating capacity of 100,000 tons, and is now temporarily put into operation due to power problems. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year and will be put into production of 50,000 tons. Shaanxi Meixin is expected to start production at the end of November. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum Co., Ltd. has a current operating capacity of 200,000 tons. Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. put into operation 100,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production of 150,000 tons, which is expected to be impossible within 2018.

Forecast of the market outlook: approaching the heating season, the implementation of the overall market policy will be implemented next week. The prices of raw petroleum coke and coal tar pitch will be stable, and the cost support will be limited. The market will adjust to the policy problems based on maintaining the original operating rate. Production plan, operating rate may be slightly oscillated; downstream electrolytic aluminum prices are still running at a low level, enterprises are slightly increased by cost reduction and other production reduction plans, and negative anode market consumption. On the whole, it is expected that the prebaked anode market will be stable in the short term.

Remarks: At present, domestic and foreign electrolytic aluminum production enterprises have large gaps in the procurement requirements for prebaked anodes. Foreign large-scale electrolytic aluminum production enterprises seek to maximize the comprehensive benefits of electrolytic aluminum production. Therefore, in the process of purchased prebaked anodes, prebaked anodes are required. There are many indicators of quality; domestic electrolytic aluminum producers pay more attention to the price of prebaked anodes, and their quality requirements are relatively low. So there is a gap in the price between the two.

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