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Week review: China prebaked anode price market (2018.11.18)

2018.11.18 This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market remained stable, and market trading was relatively stable. Entering the heating season, early warning of heavy pollution occurred. The Zhengzhou area in Henan Province was controlled by orange warning. The carbon enterprises stopped production and control from the 15th. It is expected that the alarm will be lifted on the 17th, and the ultra-low emission enterprises will limit production by 50%. Jiaozuo and Luoyang enterprises may not limit their production if they have low emissions. In addition to Zibo (half production limit), other cities and municipalities are still unclear. The production of enterprises is normal, and the environmental supervision in Hubei, Jiangsu and Southwest is strict.

Start-up situation: Hebei area: Hebei Hongke normal production, exempting peaks, Hebei Quxin carbon production limited to 20%, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfeng raw blocks are all for Qinghai and peak; Shanxi Danyuan due to environmental protection temporarily suspended production, Shanxi Guan Aluminum has been transformed; enterprises in Jiangsu Province are producing normally, and environmental protection pressure is still relatively large. Hubei area inspection is strict, Hubei Tailai carbon production is low, can undertake the processing business, Yangxin Liyu carbon is suspended in environmental protection transformation; Henan area, Huihao environmental protection equipment rectification, the current shutdown state, heavy pollution weather control, Zhengzhou, Gongyi area Suspension of production, Luoyang, Jiaozuo ultra-low emission enterprises are exempted from production. In the normal production of enterprises in Shandong Province, the ultra-low emission of heating season can not be restricted (the production limit is 50% in Zibo area), the inspection team is still in a serious situation, and Jinan organizes a major safety inspection. The supply of carbon blocks for individual anodes of the supporting anodes was slightly reduced due to the downstream construction. The Yellow River Xinye carbon molding technology was officially put into operation after the technical transformation was completed. The Chinalco Liancheng Carbon Project was shut down on the 15th.


Message:
1. The “Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas” has been released, and the production control of differentiated peaks has been implemented.
2, "The Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter air pollution tough battle to seek comments released", involving Jiangsu, Hubei.
3. “Notice on the Implementation Plan of the Three-Year Action Plan for Jiangsu Province to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, to achieve ultra-low emission can not limit production.
4. Zhengzhou City Environmental Pollution Prevention and Control Team
Regarding further tightening of temporary control measures under unfavorable meteorological conditions
The notice has been implemented since 0:00 on November 1.
5. On 11.14, Shandong Zibo Environmental Protection Bureau issued a “Implementation Plan for the Production and Control of Autumn and Winter Peaks of Industrial Enterprises in Zibo City from 2018 to 2019”. Aluminum carbon enterprises limited production by 50%, and other carbon enterprises limited production by 30% to calcined tanks. , the number of calcined tanks stopped production or the number of days of production line shutdown.
6. Notice of the People's Government of Jiaozuo City on Printing and Distributing the Three-Year Plan of Action for Pollution Prevention and Control in Jiaozuo City (2018-2020).
7. Guiding opinions on peak production in key industries in autumn and winter in 2018-2019 in Shanxi Province.

Cost aspect:

Petroleum Coke: Petroleum Coke for Prebaked Anodes: This week, the petroleum coke market is weak. Each refinery adjusted the price slightly according to the inventory. This week, the coke market was affected by the downward price of the downstream calcined coke market. The mainstream price of the coke was stable, and the downstream customers were more cautious in purchasing the traders. This week, the prices of only four refineries under Sinopec have been slightly adjusted. The price of PetroChina in Northeast China has been stable this week. The price of Xinjiang in the northwest region has been raised by RMB 50/ton this week. CNOOC’s anode coke shipment performance is poor this week. The actual transaction has been loosened. The price of Shandong Haihua Petroleum Coke was raised by RMB 50/ton this week. The coking price of this week fell by RMB 30-150/ton.

Coal tar pitch: This week, the focus of the upgraded asphalt market continued to fall. The cumulative total of new single transactions was around 100-150 yuan/ton, and most of the pre-execution pricing prices were on the high side. Raw coal tar has fallen short, and the price of the upper and lower prices has become more intense. Therefore, some manufacturers have lowered their shipments. The market outlook: raw coal tar continues to fall and bear bad, it is expected that there will be no shortage of new upgrades in the next week, and the cumulative range next week may be around 100 yuan / ton.

Supply: According to statistics, in October 2018, the total output of China's prebaked anode market was 1,161,400 tons (including commercial anodes of 775,200 tons and supporting anodes of 836,200 tons, an increase of 61,100 tons from September, an increase of 3.94%. The monthly output increased slightly compared with the output in September. The main reason was that the output of individual anode enterprises increased, and the output of commercial anode enterprises increased steadily.

Downstream demand:

Production reduction: Gansu Liancheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. decided that the remaining 168 sets of 500KA electrolyzers should be shut down due to the price of electricity, involving a production capacity of 220,000 tons. Shanxi Taiyuan East Aluminum Aluminum was shut down due to sulfur emission problems. Due to the planned inspection and revision, Gansu Dongxing Aluminum Co., Ltd. plans to reduce production by 300,000 tons. At present, Jiayuguan Branch has reduced production by 60,000 tons, and its current operating capacity is 1.26 million tons. The Minxi Branch has reduced production by 80,000 and its current operating capacity is 250,000 tons. Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) Branch have slightly reduced production due to tight supply of electricity. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has all stopped production. Linfeng Aluminium Power Co., Ltd. all stopped production due to losses. Henan Zhongfu Industrial actively reduced production by 100,000 tons due to losses. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminum Electric is expected to shut down 40,000 tons due to environmental inspection. Zouping Aluminum has all stopped production, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons. Henan Shenhuo (Group) Co., Ltd. reduced production by about 120,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental Hope Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. is expected to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to indicators. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. stopped. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum is expected to withdraw from the market in 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons. The production capacity of Chinalco Guizhou's 150,000 tons has been reduced. Qinghai West Hydropower Co., Ltd. is about to start the electrolysis cell repair, and plans to reduce production by 150,000 tons. Qinghai Xinheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to shut down 140,000 tons due to losses and other issues, and currently has a production capacity of 140,000 tons.

Resumption of production: Inner Mongolia Jinlian aluminum gradually began to resume production. Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and partial trough repairs. Henan Zhongfu has resumed production of 60,000 tons, and will resume production of 50,000 tons. Henan Wanji Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and now has a production capacity of 550,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production. Yugang Longquan Aluminum Co., Ltd. has repaired some of the troughs and completed the rest of the production. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons.

New production: Guangxi Hualei New Materials Co., Ltd. is expected to start production on the 20th of November. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has completed 100,000 tons of production. Guangxi Suyuan II series began to build 100,000 tons. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in Guangxi Debao Baiyuan Mine was started. It is expected to start the second series of 125,000 tons at the beginning of December. A series of electric power projects in Guangxi Tianlin Baiyuan Mine are expected to be completed at the end of November. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. The 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been completed and put into production. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in the first phase of Guizhou Xingren Denggao New Material was once again delayed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials No. 2 Plant was completed and put into production. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal has a current operating capacity of 100,000 tons, and is now temporarily put into operation due to power problems. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year and will be put into production of 50,000 tons. Shaanxi Meixin is expected to start production at the end of November. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum Co., Ltd. has a current operating capacity of 200,000 tons. Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. put into operation 100,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production of 150,000 tons, which is expected to be impossible within 2018.

Forecast of the market outlook: the support for raw material prices is limited; if other local market policies are not clear and the frequency of heavy pollution weather is high, the heating season market may start to fluctuate; the downstream electrolytic aluminum price will operate at a low level, the market will suffer losses overall, and production will be reduced. As planned, the demand side will be under pressure and the prebaked anode consumption will be limited. On the whole, the pre-baked anode market price is stable in the short term, and the support factors are limited in the long run, and the potential for weak operation is high.

Remarks: At present, domestic and foreign electrolytic aluminum production enterprises have large gaps in the procurement requirements for prebaked anodes. Foreign large-scale electrolytic aluminum production enterprises seek to maximize the comprehensive benefits of electrolytic aluminum production. Therefore, in the process of purchased prebaked anodes, prebaked anodes are required. There are many indicators of quality; domestic electrolytic aluminum producers pay more attention to the price of prebaked anodes, and their quality requirements are relatively low. So there is a gap in the price between the two.

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