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20181014 This week, the mainstream price of the prebaked anode market rose, which is good for industry confidence. The fourth quarter has begun, the heating season is just around the corner, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region policy has been released, and ultra-low emissions can not be restricted, and local policies are being released. It is reported that some enterprises in Henan have passed the ultra-low acceptance test, and the Hebei region has limited production. India’s import of carbon-grade petroleum coke bans and sets quotas, which will benefit anode exports.

Start-up situation: start-up situation: Hebei area: Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon conventional, normal production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfeng raw blocks are all for Qinghai and peak, Hebei heating season adopts "step A\B \C" limited production; enterprises in Shanxi Province started to work weakly, Danyuan roasting is in the open, do some electrodes, Guan Aluminum plans to transform the enterprise, plans to do electrode paste or roasting electrode, has not been determined;

The production of enterprises in Jiangsu area is normal, and the construction started higher than that in the second quarter. “The autumn and winter plan of the Yangtze River Delta has been released”, and production in Jiangsu will be limited during the heating season.

Hubei Province has strict inspections, Hubei Tailai carbon production has been reduced, and environmental protection equipment has been transformed. Enterprises have a small amount of stocks; Guizhou area, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant relocated, no output; Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrodes, roasting A small amount, Huihao environmental protection equipment renovation, August shutdown maintenance, Henan Yuhui, Zhengzhou Great Wall discontinued production, Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50%, Zhulin Saxin external processing carbon block, some enterprises have been low acceptance. In the southwestern region, some enterprises have reduced production; in the normal production of enterprises in Shandong, the output of individual enterprises has fluctuated. The carbon blocks of the supporting anodes are upgraded by environmental protection reasons or the electrolytic cell is overhauled.

Message:
1. The notice of the implementation plan for the implementation of the peak production regulation of industrial enterprises in the heating period of 2018-2019 during the reporting period of 2018-2019 indicates that the carbon enterprises used for electrolytic aluminum are limited to 50%. The production line is stable and achieves ultra-low emission (particles, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides are not higher than 10, 35, 50 mg/m3 respectively), and the production is limited to 50% in the non-ferrous recycling industry. Production line meter.
2. The Action Plan for Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2018-2019 in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Surrounding Areas has been released.
3, "The Yangtze River Delta autumn and winter air pollution tough battle to seek comments released", involving Jiangsu, Hubei.

Cost aspect:
Petroleum coke for prebaked anode: This week, the price of petroleum coke market rose first and then stabilized. During the National Day, some refineries executed pre-holiday orders, and the inventory performance after the holiday was low. The coke price was obviously pushed up, but the downstream market procurement operation was late this week. The performance was general. At the same time, the petroleum coke index of some enterprises was changed, the market low sulfur coke resources decreased, and the medium sulfur coke resources increased, so the market price gradually stabilized.

Coal tar pitch: After the National Day holiday, the coal tar pitch market has risen sharply, and the revised asphalt offer has risen sharply, but as of this Thursday, the high level is still playing. Medium-temperature asphalt supply reduction in the short-term, downstream demand is still acceptable, low-end delisting, high breakthrough is limited.

Supply side:
According to statistics, in August 2018, the total output of China's prebaked anodes was 1,560,500 tons, of which 740,500 tons of commercial anodes and 802,000 tons of anodes were increased by 16,900 tons from August, an increase of 1.09%. The output in September increased slightly compared with the output in August. The main reason was that the output of individual anode enterprises increased, and the output of commercial anode enterprises increased and decreased, which was the same as last month.

Downstream demand:
Production cuts: Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) have slightly reduced production due to power supply problems. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has reduced production problems. Henan Zhongfu and Linfeng Aluminium Electric actively reduced production due to losses. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power Environmental Inspection, shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum has all stopped production, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons. Chinalco Liancheng reduced production by about 160,000 tons due to electricity price problems. Henan Shenhuo reduced production by about 110,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to the indicator problem. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. all stopped, and the index was transferred to Meixin. Chinalco Guizhou's 150,000 tons has all been reduced. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum Industry is expected to implement around 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons.

Resumption of production: Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. In addition to the wheel repair, Linfeng Aluminium Electric has basically resumed production. Some of the tanks in the Longquan Aluminum Industry of Yugang were overhauled, and the rest of the production was completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons. Henan Zhongfu resumed production and the remaining rounds were repaired. Henan Wanji Aluminum completed its resumption of production in mid-May and now has a production capacity of 570,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production.

In terms of new production: 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum has been completed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials on the 21st, the remaining 88 sets of the second plant began to start, and is currently completed. Shaanxi Meixin began commissioning equipment on September 15 and is expected to start production in November. Shanxi Chinalco China Resources 1st and 8th District has a current operating capacity of 80,000 tons and is temporarily stable. It is expected to continue production in late October. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum started production on September 5th. Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. put into operation 100,000 tons. Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. Guizhou Xingren climbed the high, and the 122.5 million tons of electricity in the first phase was suspended again. It is expected to continue in early November. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons of production, and the second phase has not yet started production. The current funding problem has been reduced. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. Mengtai Aluminum is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal, with a current operating capacity of 90,000 tons, is now temporarily put into operation due to the price of electricity. Guangxi Suyuan's second series of 100,000 tons is expected to start production at the end of October. A series of 100,000 tons of Guangxi Debao 100 mines has been completed. A series of 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin 100 mine in Guangxi is currently slowly put into operation. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production in October 2018.

Market outlook: The price of raw petroleum coke is generally raised after the holiday, the price of coal tar is pushing up, the price is increasing, the pressure of prebaked anode is increasing; the stocking of downstream electrolytic aluminum market is still going on, which is good for anode consumption, but the price of aluminum has been Low-level operation, aluminum enterprises almost all losses, enterprises may take the initiative to reduce production, the pace of new investment, resumption of production slowed down, negative anode consumption. Therefore, the short-term prebaked anode market price has limited support and is stable in the short term.

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This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market was running smoothly. The heating season is approaching, and the environmental protection policy and the limited production ratio are the focus of the industry. At present, the “2+26 and surrounding areas” autumn and winter tackling schemes have been released, and specific implementation measures will be released one after another. It is reported that enterprises in Henan Province are actively rectifying and reforming, and will continue to accept and accept in October to determine the ratio of production restrictions; Zibo area will not limit production.

Starting situation:
Four enterprises in Hebei, Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon, regular production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfengsheng block is all for Qinghai and peak, Hebei area for the national three, the country five car transport restrictions, autumn The winter tackling plan has been released; the Shanxi region is weakly started, Danyuan roasting is being opened, some electrodes are being used, and the Guanlan plan enterprise is undergoing transformation, and the electrode paste or roasting electrode is planned to be determined. The inspection in Hubei is strict, and the production of Hubei Tailai carbon is reduced. In the renovation of environmental protection equipment, enterprises have a small amount of inventory; in Guizhou, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant relocated, no output; in Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrode, roasting a small amount, Huihao environmental protection equipment renovation, August Shutdown maintenance, Henan Yuhui, Zhengzhou Great Wall discontinued; Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50%, bamboo forest Sasin outside processing carbon block. In the southwestern part of the country, some enterprises have reduced production, and the carbon blocks of individual anodes are upgraded due to environmental protection reasons or the electrolytic cell is overhauled.

Cost aspect:
Petroleum coke: petroleum coke for prebaked anode: This week, the price of petroleum coke market began to bottom out, mainly reflected in local refineries. Sinopec's refinery's petroleum coke remained stable this week, with a slight downward adjustment. PetroChina's refinery's coke price remained stable. More, CNOOC this week, two refineries started working. In detail, Sinopec's refinery's petroleum coke is only 20-40 yuan/ton in the two refineries of Gaoqiao and Guangzhou, and the price of Lanzhou petrochemical in the northwest of CNPC is raised by 60 yuan/ton. CNOOC Binzhou Zhonghai and Zhoushan Petrochemical re-pricing this week. The price has dropped before the stoppage. In terms of refining, the price of this week has risen and fallen by 50-100 yuan/ton.

Coal bitumen:
This week, the coal tar pitch market has been pushed up, and it has been actively promoted. The atmosphere of negotiations has been strong, and attention has been paid to the establishment of purchasing prices for key enterprises. The cost pressure of coal tar pitch manufacturers is obvious. In October, the equipment maintenance plan increased, and the increase was more confident. Late forecast: It is expected that the coal tar pitch market will go up and the increase will be a game. The raw material price is high before the holiday, and the price reduction may not be ruled out after the holiday. The supply of coal tar will be reduced in October. There are still restrictions on the terminal market.

Supply side:
According to statistics, in August 2018, China's total output of prebaked anodes was 1,543,600 tons, of which commercial anodes were 751,500 tons, and supporting anodes were 799,800 tons. The increase was 0.77 million tons in July, an increase of 0.5%. In August, the output increased slightly compared with the output in July. Some enterprises in the Gongyi area of ​​Henan resumed production and the production capacity was released. The overall output increased compared with July. However, the enterprises supporting the anodes have stopped production and repaired zero production, resulting in a small increase in the overall supply of the market.

Resumption:
Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial tank repairs. Linfeng Aluminium, in addition to the wheel repair, the rest of the production capacity is basically resumed. Some of the long-slots in Longquan, Henan Province were overhauled, and the rest of the production was completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons. Henan Zhongfu began to resume production in late April, and began to resume production in late April. The resumption of production was completed and the remaining rounds were repaired. Henan Wanji Aluminum completed the resumption of production in mid-May and now has a production capacity of 570,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production.

New production:
The remaining 88 troughs of Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials No. 2 Plant began to be launched one after another and are currently in operation. Shaanxi Meixin began commissioning equipment on September 15 and is expected to start production in November. Chinalco China Resources 1st and 8th District 125,000 tons was officially put into operation on May 19th. The current operating capacity is 80,000 tons, which is temporarily stable. It is expected to continue production in October. The 125,000 tons of network fee in the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been resolved, and it is expected to be completed in mid-October. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum, on September 5, new production capacity began to be put into production. Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. started power supply in late July and is expected to start production to around 150,000 tons during the year. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in Guizhou Xingren's first stage was suspended again and is expected to continue in early November. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons of production, and the second phase has not yet started production. The current funding problem has been reduced. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd., with a current operating capacity of 90,000 tons, is now temporarily put into operation due to the price of electricity. Guangxi Suyuan Investment Series 100,000 tons began to continue construction, is expected to start production at the end of October, completed production within the year. A series of 100,000 tons of Guangxi Debao 100 mine started production on April 7, 2018. The current operating capacity is 65,000 tons, which is expected to be completed in October. A series of 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin Baiyuan Mine in Guangxi began production in early May 2018 and is currently in slow production. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai has completed production in early May and now has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Heqing Yixin is expected to start production in October 2018.

Market outlook:
The price of raw petroleum coke stopped falling, the price of coal tar pitch was stable, and the support of anode cost was stable. The enthusiasm of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises was not reduced, mainly for stocking in winter, which was good for anode consumption. In addition, the maintenance of individual anodes for supporting anodes To increase anode consumption, there will be a small price increase in the short-term market, which is about 100 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, the development will be subject to the implementation of environmental protection policies and the multi-faceted price of raw materials.

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(2018.09.21) This week, the mainstream transaction price of China's prebaked anode market remained stable. The price of raw material petroleum coke was lowered in September, and the decline was now stable, with limited support for anode prices. With the gradual approach of the heating season, the market has a high enthusiasm for the production restriction policy. The ultra-low emissions in Henan will be checked and accepted next week. The Zibo region in Shandong is the first to issue a notice. The enterprises with ultra-low emission standards can be exempted from production. Other regional policies Will be introduced one after another.

Knowledge point analysis: What is a prebaked anode? The prebaked anode is made of petroleum coke and pitch coke, and the coal bitumen is made of a binder, and is used as a pre-baked aluminum electrolytic cell as an anode material. This carbon block has been calcined and has a stable geometry, so it is also called prebaked anode carbon block, which is also known as carbon anode for aluminum electrolysis.

Construction conditions: four enterprises in Hebei, Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon, normal production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfengsheng block for Qinghai and Feng, Hebei region for the national three, the national five car transport restrictions Reinforcement; Shanxi area is weak, Danyuan roasting is open, partial electrode is made, Guan Aluminum plans to transform the enterprise, and plans to make electrode paste or roasting electrode has not been determined; Hubei area is strictly inspected, Hubei Tailai carbon production is reduced, and environmental protection equipment is being reformed. The company has a small amount of inventory; in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, the company has reduced production due to environmental protection; in Guizhou, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant has changed; in Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrode, roasting a small amount, Huihao environmental protection equipment During the renovation, the furnace was shut down for maintenance in August, and Henan Yuhui and Zhengzhou Great Wall were suspended. In the Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50%, and the bamboo forest was processed outside the bamboo block. Individual enterprises in the main producing area of ​​Shandong Province also actively reduced production, Shandong Liangshan Wanda raw material warehouse transformation, production cuts. In the southwestern part of the country, some enterprises have reduced production, and the carbon blocks of individual anodes are upgraded due to environmental protection reasons or the electrolytic cell is overhauled.

In terms of news:  [2018] No. 17 "Notice on submitting the plan for the implementation of the peak production regulation of industrial enterprises during the heating period of 2018-2019" indicates that the carbon enterprises used for electrolytic aluminum limit production by 50%. In terms of production line, stable and ultra-low emission (particle, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emission concentration is not higher than 10, 35, 50 mg / cubic meter respectively), can not limit production; non-ferrous recycling industry casting process limited production of 50%, Based on the production line.

Cost: petroleum coke, petroleum coke for prebaked anodes, this week, the price of petroleum coke market has slowed down, the willingness to approach the refinery's petroleum coke clearing warehouse is increasing, and the price of petroleum coke is mostly maintained at low price. This week's main business The refinery's coke price was stable, and individual refineries were slightly adjusted. In detail, Sinopec's refineries only partially reduced the price of coke in South China by 40 yuan/ton this week. The price of CNPC's northwestern region was raised by 50-100 yuan/ton this week. CNOOC stabilized this week and the price of this year's refinery was lowered. The concentration is concentrated at 50-150 yuan / ton.

Supply: According to Baichuan Information, in August 2018, China's total output of prebaked anodes was 1,543,600 tons, of which commercial anodes were 751,500 tons, and supporting anodes were 799,800 tons. The increase was 0.77 million tons in July, an increase of 0.5%. . In August, the output increased slightly compared with the output in July. Some enterprises in the Gongyi area of ​​Henan resumed production and the production capacity was released. The overall output increased compared with July. However, the enterprises supporting the anodes have stopped production and repaired zero production, resulting in a small increase in the overall supply of the market.

Downstream demand:

Production cuts: Henan Zhongfu and Linfeng A&M actively reduced production by 30% due to losses. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power Environmental Inspection, shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons, and now operating capacity of 130,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum Co., Ltd. all stopped production. Chinalco Liancheng reduced production by about 160,000 tons due to electricity price problems. Henan Shenhuo (Group) Co., Ltd. reduced production by about 110,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to the indicator problem. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Co., Ltd. all stopped, and the index was transferred to Meixin. The Chinalco Guizhou branch retreated to the city and the production capacity of 150,000 tons has been reduced. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum Industry is expected to implement around 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons.

Resumption of production: Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. Linfeng Aluminium, in addition to the wheel repair, the rest of the production capacity is basically resumed. Yichuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. Longquan part of the trough was overhauled, and the rest of the production was completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. began to resume production in late April, and resumed production in late April. The resumption of production was completed and the rest of the repairs were completed. Henan Wanji Aluminum has a current operating capacity of 570,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production.

New investment: Shaanxi Meixin began commissioning equipment on September 15 and is expected to start production in November. The 125,000 tons of network fee in the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been resolved, and it is expected to be completed in mid-October. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum started production on September 5th. The remaining 88 troughs of Huayun New Materials on the 21st of the second plant began to start, and are expected to be completed in late September. Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production to around 150,000 tons during the year. Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in the first phase of Guizhou Xingren Denggao New Material was suspended again and is expected to continue in early November. The first phase of Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry has completed 100,000 tons, and the second phase has not yet started production. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. Mengtai Aluminum is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd., with a current operating capacity of 90,000 tons, is now temporarily put into operation due to the price of electricity. Shanxi Chinalco China Resources currently operates at a capacity of 80,000 tons and is temporarily stable. Guangxi Suyuan II series began to build 100,000 tons, and it is expected to start production at the end of October. Guangxi Debao Baiyuan Aluminum Industry has a series of 100,000 tons of current operating capacity of 65,000 tons, which is expected to be completed in October. The 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin Bailing Mine in Guangxi began production in early May 2018 and is currently in slow production. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production in October 2018.

Market outlook: By the end of the third quarter, the price of prebaked anodes experienced a total loss in the first half of the year, and the price recovery gradually stimulated industry confidence. The price of raw material petroleum coke was moderate, the price of coal tar pitch was stable, and the support of anode cost was limited. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises were subject to the cost of self-provided power plants, and the cost would be reduced. However, enterprises are now stocking winter inventory, which is good for anode consumption. Individual supporting anode factory overhaul, external anode, increase anode market demand, it is expected that the anode price may still increase the price, the range is about 100 yuan / ton.

Remarks: At present, domestic and foreign electrolytic aluminum production enterprises have large gaps in the procurement requirements for prebaked anodes. Foreign large-scale electrolytic aluminum production enterprises seek to maximize the comprehensive benefits of electrolytic aluminum production. Therefore, in the process of purchased prebaked anodes, prebaked anodes are required. There are many indicators of quality; domestic electrolytic aluminum producers pay more attention to the price of prebaked anodes, and their quality requirements are relatively low. So there is a gap in the price between the two.

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180914 Because the price of petroleum coke in the early stage is in the rising stage, the price of petroleum coke is steadily fluctuating at this stage, but it is still in a high state. The calcined coke and prebaked anode market associated with this are also stable.

The three major groups of petroleum coke market:
In terms of Sinopec, today's refinery's petroleum coke market is trading smoothly, and there are no other changes in refinery indicators. The sulfur in the Yanjiang area is still trading well, and the Jingmen petrochemical coking unit is expected to start on September 16. The Shengli petrochemical coking unit in Shandong will be shut down for maintenance on September 15. The inventory of petroleum coke in downstream calcined coke enterprises is mostly in the middle and low position. Therefore, the demand for petroleum coke market is relatively good. It is predicted that the price of petroleum coke in Sinopec's refinery will be stable next week.
 
For PetroChina and CNOOC, the price of Dushanzi Petrochemical Petroleum Coke in the northwest region was raised by RMB 50/ton today. The oil coke shipments of the plant performed well and the downstream enterprises received positive products. The commencement date of the coking unit of Shandong Haihua Group has all been postponed. At present, the atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit of the plant has been started, and the specific time will continue to be tracked.

Refining petroleum coke: Today's refining petroleum coke trading tends to be stable, the number of refineries under the coke price is reduced, and some refineries with high pre-pay prices are replenishing today. Judging from the current shipment situation of refinery petroleum coke, it is expected that the coke price will enter a stable period in the next few days, and the overall rebound possibility is slim.

Calcined coke market: The calcined coke market has not fallen due to the downward adjustment of the coking price, and the market as a whole is mainly stable.

The mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market remained stable. The price of raw material petroleum coke is high, and the prices of individual enterprises are slightly lowered, and the cost of anode raw materials is high. The promotion of environmental inspection and the approach to the heating season, strict environmental inspections everywhere, no major changes in market start-up, sporadic enterprises stop production and rectification, coupled with the downstream electrolytic aluminum market price affected by raw materials, inventory, macroeconomic, environmental protection, etc., affecting market operating rates However, due to its winter stocking, it is good for the anode market.

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Petroleum coke is a by-product of the delayed coking unit's feedstock oil cracking at high temperatures to produce light oil products. It is cheaper than coal and has a higher burning temperature. American petroleum coke has a high calorific value and attractive price, which is favored by cheap Indian factories. Indian cement companies use 75% of the country's petroleum coke.

At the hearing on July 30, 2018, the Supreme Court of India decided to release the restrictions on the use of petroleum coke in four industries, including cement, lime, calcium carbide, and petroleum coke vaporization. It also announced carbon-grade petroleum coke and calcination in October. The import restrictions on coke are subject to a hearing.

Beginning on August 7, India completely banned the import of carbon grade petroleum coke and calcined coke. Sponge coke is directly restricted by the import declaration of carbon manufacturers. On the other hand, the four industries with the above-mentioned open import restrictions can be imported normally, and there are those companies that can use the above four industries to import Indian carbon grade petroleum coke. However, under the situation of strict investigation of the start of the carbon plant, the import volume of carbon grade petroleum coke in India is bound to be greatly reduced.

India's electrolytic aluminum production in 2017 was about 3.4 million tons, and the demand for petroleum coke was about 1.8 million tons. The demand for carbon grade petroleum coke is basically dependent on imports. China exports carbon grade petroleum coke to India, reaching 540,000 tons in 2017. In 2017, India imported 1.99 million tons of petroleum coke and 1.88 million tons of carbon-grade imports, accounting for 18%. China Petroleum Coke accounts for 30% of India's carbon-grade petroleum coke imports. The most used is fuel grade petroleum coke, which accounts for 80% of imports. In terms of calcined coke, it exported 170,000 tons to India in 2017. At present, the calcined coke export to India may be interrupted or substantially reduced by October.

Fuel market: At this time, India has imposed restrictions on the release of high-sulfur fuel-grade petroleum coke imports, which will support international prices in the second half of the year. In the first half of 2018, China imported high-sulfur fuel coke, which increased by nearly 80% compared with last year. The coal market price has not been as good as expected since March. At the same time, the price of petroleum coke is high, the port price is upside down, and the spot inventory is high. China’s high sulfur coke imports are expected to decline in the second half of the year. In this case, India The high-sulfur fuel market is re-established, and international high-sulfur coke prices are expected to remain high. Under the circumstance of US tariffs, the expectation of China's fuel-grade petroleum coke imports will be strengthened in the second half of the year.

Carbon market: China's exports of carbon grade petroleum coke in India are reduced. If imports continue to be restricted, India may switch to importing pre-baked anode products. The prebaked anode is made of petroleum coke and pitch coke, and the coal bitumen is made of a binder, and is used as a pre-baked aluminum electrolytic cell as an anode material. This carbon block has been calcined and has a stable geometry, so it is also called prebaked anode carbon block, which is also known as carbon anode for aluminum electrolysis.

In 2018, China's domestic aluminum carbon market is tightly balanced. In the case of downstream production during the heating period, it may be relaxed. However, due to the tariffs imposed on the US coke, China's low-to-sulphur fuel market will require domestic sponges to be fixed. The amount of supplement, the price of domestic sponge coke will have a certain guarantee.

On the other hand, for India, the import of sponge coke and calcined coke (including from China) is the main source of carbon-grade petroleum coke, and Indian companies themselves will actively try to solve or circumvent the policy of restricting imports. Before October, it may cause a certain reduction in the import volume of petroleum coke imported from China, including other regions, but it will still find a way to solve the import problem. Exports to India are expected to reach 300,000 tons in the first half of the year, and actual arrivals of sponge coke and calcined coke may be significantly reduced between September and October.

According to the supply and demand of carbon for aluminum in India, the normal logic infers that India has almost no possibility of a total ban on imports. However, if the Indian High Law Hearing in October is still severely restricting imports, it may happen that India will switch to the import of prebaked anode products! The total demand for prebaked anodes in India is 1.7 million tons (2017). In recent years, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production in India is basically 15-20%.

As China's domestic coke consumption in the fuel market may increase, this year's market, even if the reduction of certain petroleum coke exports, will not have a big impact on the Chinese petroleum coke market price. On the contrary, in the unfavorable situation, the prebaked anode outlet may be boosted.

Due to the lack of good quality carbon grade petroleum coke in India, whether it is sponge coke, calcined coke or prebaked anode, it is still dependent on imports. For other countries' petroleum coke and carbon market, it is a problem of exporting raw materials or exporting finished products. . The existing capacity and new capacity of China's prebaked anodes are huge, which is convenient for expanding exports and seizing the carbon market for aluminum in India, which may also drive the demand for the carbon industry chain for aluminum.

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