The United States announced that the second part of the $50 billion tariff list will be levied on August 23, followed by China’s response to the 16 billion tariff list, which has a petroleum coke, and the corresponding implementation time is synchronized with the US. It is unfavorable news for the domestic petroleum coke industry, which will result in a significant reduction in the price/performance ratio of China's imported US petroleum coke, especially for the medium and low sulfur projectile coke used in the glass industry, 80% or 2.1 million tons from the United States, and it is difficult to obtain alternative resources. The gap is huge.
In view of the current market and price of the international market, once the tax is levied, the US high-sulfur coke will not be imported again. The space for the US low-to-sulphur coke to lower the price is small. The reason for the domestic supply and demand and price of domestic petroleum coke will be difficult. Completely make up.
China's carbon production fell after the output in April 2018, which was dominated by market factors and supplemented by environmental factors. After the end of the heating period, the inventory of carbon products was large, the output continued to increase, the supply exceeded demand, and the price dropped sharply. The price of petroleum coke also fell with the price of carbon. However, due to the high inventory of refined oil products in Shandong, the delayed coking rate started to decline rapidly in March. Under the situation of continuous decline in carbon production, the supply of petroleum coke is still tight, and the price of petroleum coke is still tight. It is still at a high level in the industrial chain.
From June to July 2018, China's petroleum coke operating rate and downstream carbon operating rate were at a low level. In June, the supply and demand of aluminum for calcined petroleum coke and electrolytic aluminum were basically balanced, and carbon stocks basically returned to half-month to one-month inventory. Under the premise of stocking before the heating period, the demand for carbon is expected to pick up.
According to the currently known refinery maintenance plan, the total production of petroleum coke in July-December is expected to be 14.37 million tons. However, there are 8 local refineries that may be overhauled. If they are calculated according to one month of maintenance, the estimated production of petroleum coke will be reduced by 165,000 tons, and the output of low-sulfur coke with relatively high price such as CNOOC will be reduced by about 1.1 million. The supply of self-consumption and projectile coke in the refinery is about 2.15 million tons, the supply of domestic coke is close to 11 million tons, and the import of sponge coke is expected to be less than 500,000-700,000 tons. It is estimated that the production of petroleum coke for carbon use in aluminum from July to December is estimated to be 1,150-1,170,000. From July to December, the output of calcined coke is expected to be 9.5 million tons, and the demand is 11.87 million tons. Therefore, the oil coke is expected to be tight in the second half of the year, and the price will also rise and fall closely with the price and demand of carbon.
Therefore, in the second half of the year, domestic petroleum coke supply glass plants and other low-sulphur projectiles use less space. With the sales characteristics of domestic petroleum coke, once the supply of fuel-grade petroleum coke is insufficient or the price is too high, too much domestic coke is used. Under the expectation of production and sales, the price of domestic coke will rise rapidly, and the price/performance advantage of petroleum coke fuel will no longer exist.
Therefore, we have come to the conclusion that the US coke tariff is imposed, and the US low-to-sulphur and high-sulfur petroleum coke are difficult to import. The high-sulfur coke has little effect on the market scale of the high-sulfur coke due to domestic market reasons and international alternative resource factors. There will be a shortage of medium and low sulfur coke in China, with an average monthly gap of 175,000 tons. In the second half of the year, domestic coke shortage is expected, and the price is easy to rise, which cannot fully supplement the fuel market gap.