At the hearing on October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of India decided to liberalize import restrictions on carbon grade petroleum coke and calcined petroleum coke, while setting import quotas for carbon grade petroleum coke and calcined coke.
India's annual import quota is 500,000 tons of calcined coke and 1.4 million tons of carbon grade petroleum coke, but it is not allowed to be used as fuel. Petroleum coke is a sponge-like solid residue produced during the distillation of crude oil. Its calorific value is 1.5 times that of coal. It is usually used as fuel in electric power, glass, cement, and other industries. Because of the high calorific value of petroleum coke and the much cheaper price than coal, coupled with the loopholes in India's environmental protection tax, petroleum coke has become the most attractive raw material for Indian power stations and cement plants.
For India, petroleum coke is indeed cheap and easy to use, but it also costs a lot of use. India’s sulfur dioxide emissions have surpassed China in 2016 to become the world’s number one. At present, about 33 million people live in sulfur dioxide pollution. Area. To this end, the Modi government is determined to ban the use of petroleum coke as a fuel nationwide!
Petroleum coke market: The results of this hearing are also expected by all parties in the market. At present, Indian buyers are already in contact with Chinese petroleum coke and calcined coke suppliers. India’s two-month carbon-grade petroleum coke and calcined coke imports will soon recover.
China's petroleum coke price: For the current Chinese petroleum coke market, the impact is very limited. The export volume of petroleum coke from major manufacturers in the early stage was basically at the port level and did not enter the domestic market. The import restrictions on the release of petroleum coke in India are mainly to continue the previous export plan, which has little impact on the domestic petroleum coke market supply and demand.
Quota setting impact: The output converted to prebaked anodes is 165-1.7 million tons/year from the set limit. Compared with the demand for prebaked anodes in 2017, the demand for 1.7 million tons is basically the same.
For the Indian aluminum carbon market, the quota set this time basically meets the current demand. However, considering that India's electrolytic aluminum production has grown rapidly in recent years, the growth rate is basically 15%-20%, and the future demand is difficult to meet. There may be two situations in the future:
The first is that annual quotas are raised as demand for electrolytic aluminum increases;
The second is to still limit the current quota, or to increase the relative demand, and instead import more pre-baked anode products.
The second article above is relatively more in line with India's national environmental requirements. For the China Petroleum Coke Industry Chain, both of these situations can share the dividends generated by the development of the Indian electrolytic aluminum industry. Relatively speaking, if the second article is established, it will be more favorable to the domestic petroleum coke industry chain, which can boost the export of prebaked anodes, increase the utilization rate of prebaked anode capacity, and drive the demand for petroleum coke and calcined coke. Moreover, the recent domestic environmental protection policy is more rational, and it is also convenient for carbon enterprises to stabilize production.