China Weekly analysis: Calcined petroleum coke for aluminum 2018.18.07

2018.12.07 This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market fell, mainly due to the low price of raw materials, the downstream electrolytic aluminum market was affected by the cost pressure, and the loss operation of the company had a common impact. The purchase price of the pre-baked anode market of an aluminum company in Shandong in December. Compared with November, it was down by RMB 50/ton.

Production: The implementation of the limited production requirements for limited production in Shandong Province, the overall performance of other regions is normal, but the safety inspection is still severe; Henan region, affected by high environmental protection requirements and heavy pollution weather, in which the enterprises in Gongyi and Fuyang are suspended, it is expected The possibility of resumption of production on January 17 is relatively small. The company's response is expected to be postponed until mid-February, and other areas in Zhengzhou may also face production suspension. The environmental protection situation in Hebei, Jiangsu and Hubei is strict.

Start-up situation: Production: Shandong area: Binzhou, Zibo, Liaocheng area enterprises implement production restriction measures, the current production is normal, Shandong Jinan and other places of normal production, but the overall safety inspection, environmental inspection is strict; Hebei: Hebei Hongke normal production Exempted from the wrong peak, Hebei Quxin carbon limited production of 20%, Xinfeng only birth block; Shanxi area: currently only two small generation processing as anode, Danyuan conversion, Guan Aluminum discontinued; Jiangsu area: enterprise production is normal, environmental protection The pressure is still large. Hubei area: strict inspection, Hubei Tailai carbon is mainly processed, molding has stopped, currently only calcined coke, Yangxin Liyu carbon is suspended in environmental protection transformation; Henan area: Huihao environmental protection equipment rectification, the current production state.

Gongyi and Shuyang all stopped production, Zhengzhou Great Wall Aluminum Industry participated in the wrong peak, limited production half, and may stop production in the later stage, Henan Branch has all stopped production. Luoyang, Jiaozuo, Sanmenxia enterprises can be exempted from ultra-low. The supply of carbon blocks for individual anodes of the supporting anodes was slightly reduced due to downstream construction. After the technical transformation of carbon forming in Huanghe Xinye, it was officially put into operation and normal operation; the output of Qinghai Qiaotou was reduced, mainly due to the reduction of production of electrolytic aluminum; the shutdown of Chinalco Liancheng carbon was completed, Chinalco Lanzhou Carbon is discontinued and the main digested inventory is currently available.

Fushun Aluminum's new carbon project (350,000 tons) roasting furnace was successfully ignited and started. It is expected that the products will be burnt and burned first in the second quarter of 2019.

Cost: Calcined petroleum coke for prebaked anode: 2018.12.07 This week, the price of petroleum coke market went up and down. Among them, the Sinopec refinery made up the price, the refining price of the refining bottom bottomed out, and the coke price of CNOOC remained weak. The price is stable and wait and see. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum is still in a downward trend, and the calcined coke is under pressure, so the overall support for the raw material petroleum coke market price is weak. This week, the price of petroleum coke in Sinopec's refinery was lowered by 40-50 yuan/ton, and the individual refineries of PetroChina were lowered by 100 yuan/ton.

Coal tar pitch: The price of coal tar pitch is mainly discussed this week. Under the support of slightly lower supply of medium temperature asphalt, the downward trend tends to be slow. It is expected that the monthly pricing of the big factory may be lower than the previous forecast, and the coal tar pitch market will gradually bottom out next week, and the manufacturer of the modified asphalt main production area will talk about it.

Supply: According to Baichuan Information, in November 2018, China's prebaked anode market totaled 1,546,900 tons (including commercial anodes of 767,500 tons and supporting anodes of 779,400 tons), a decrease of 46,500 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 2.89. %. The main reason for the decline in production: the commercial production of enterprises in the main pre-baked anode production area in Henan Province, the output of most enterprises on the basis of 50% of production, the output will be reduced by half, and even the output of individual enterprises in November, resulting in a decrease in the market anode anode commercial supply; In the supporting anode, the aluminum Lanzhou and Liancheng carbon plants were discontinued, and the aluminum plant in Qinghai reduced production, and the supply of enterprises in individual regions decreased.

Production reduction: Shanxi Jinneng Group Cangzhou Energy Aluminum Silicon Alloy Co., Ltd. maintains 30 sets of 220KA electrolyzers, involving a production capacity of 18,000 tons. Xinjiang Tianlong Mining Co., Ltd. has a capacity of 45,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, and its current operating capacity is 200,000 tons. Shandong Weiqiao aluminum power peak reduction production, is expected to reduce production by about 10%, is expected to be completed before December 1. The hydropower maintenance and production reduction in western Qinghai has been reduced by 100,000 tons. The remaining 141 sets of 400KA electrolyzers in Qinghai Xinheng Aluminum were shut down. Shandong Huayu aluminum power peak has been reduced by 50,000 tons. Gansu Liancheng Aluminum has stopped 59 units and suspended production for awaiting the outcome of the negotiations. Shanxi Taiyuan East Aluminum Aluminum was shut down completely. Gansu Dongxing Aluminum Jiayuguan Branch reduced production by 80,000 tons, and Daixi Branch reduced production by 100,000.

Dengda Group Aluminum and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum (Yangcheng) have slightly reduced production. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has all stopped production. Linfeng Aluminium Power Co., Ltd. all stopped production. Henan Zhongfu Industrial actively reduced production by 100,000 tons. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power is expected to shut down 65 units and involve a production capacity of 40,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum has all stopped production. Henan Shenhuo reduced production by about 120,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Division stopped. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum is expected to withdraw from the market in 2020. Chinalco Guizhou has completed production cuts. The overhaul of the hydroelectric electrolysis tank in the western part of Qinghai is about to begin, with a planned reduction of 150,000 tons. Qinghai Xinheng Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to shut down 140,000 tons due to losses and other issues, and currently has a production capacity of 140,000 tons.

Resumption of production: Inner Mongolia Jinlian aluminum gradually began to resume production. Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has completed the resumption of production and partial trough repairs. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. has resumed production of 60,000 tons, and will resume production of 50,000 tons. Henan Wanji has a current operating capacity of 550,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Industry (Yangcheng) completed the resumption of production. Yichuan Power Group Yugang Longquan Aluminum has some tank repairs, and the rest of the production has been completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons.

New production: Shanxi Chinalco China Resources maintains a current capacity of 100,000 tons. The four-stage 100,000 tons of Guangxi Hualei new materials is expected to be completed around Christmas. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan has a production capacity of 120,000 tons. It is now temporarily put into operation due to the power problem. It is expected to start production in early December. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in Guangxi Debao 100 Mine was started. It is expected that the second series will be 125,000 tons in early January 2019. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin Baiyuan Mine in Guangxi has been completed. The first phase of Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry has completed 100,000 tons. The second series of 100,000 tons of Guangxi Suyuan Investment Co., Ltd. is expected to start production in January 2019.

Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. The 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been completed and put into production. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in the first phase of Guizhou Xingren Denggao New Material was once again delayed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials on the 21st, the remaining 88 sets of the second plant began to start, and is currently completed. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy has already put into operation 200,000 tons. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City will be put into production of 50,000 tons. Shaanxi Meixin is expected to start production on December 10. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to complete production by the end of November. Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. put into operation 100,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to put into operation 150,000 tons, and it is expected that it will not be put into production within 2018.

The market outlook: raw material petroleum coke prices began to rebound individually, coal tar pitch prices are weak, short-term pre-baked anode support is slightly weak; downstream aluminum prices "falling down", electrolytic aluminum enterprises actively reduce production, limited anode demand Supply side: Even if some enterprises in Henan have stopped production, in view of the small production capacity of enterprises and the low operating rate before the suspension of production, the impact on the overall supply of the market is limited, and it is difficult to break the current oversupply situation in the market. Prices are stable and the export volume is expected to increase slightly.

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