This week, the mainstream price of the prebaked anode market for aluminum production in China was stable. The price of raw materials is weak and stable, which is unfavorable for pre-baked yang; supply side: affected by the heating season policy and the actual situation of local environment, the requirements of local rules are different. Most enterprises in the main producing area are exempted from production and production is normal, but still There are sporadic regional enterprises to implement the production restriction order, and enterprises in Gongyi and Fuyang in Henan will stop production until mid-February next year.
Production: Shandong area: Binzhou, Zibo, Liaocheng area enterprises to implement production restrictions, the current production is normal, Shandong Jinan and other places of normal production, but the overall safety inspection, environmental inspection is strict; Hebei: Hebei Hongke normal production, exemption Peak and Hebei Quxin carbon production limited to 20%, Xinfeng only birth block; Shanxi area: low start; Jiangsu area: enterprise production is normal, environmental protection pressure is still relatively large. Hubei area: strict inspection, Hubei Tailai carbon is mainly processed, molding has stopped, and currently only calcined coke.
Yangxin Liyu carbon was discontinued in environmental protection transformation; Henan area: Huihao environmental protection equipment rectification, the current state of production suspension. Enterprises in Gongyi and Fuyang regions stopped production; Luoyang, Jiaozuo and Sanmenxia enterprises were exempted from ultra-low. The supply of carbon blocks for individual anodes of the supporting anodes was slightly reduced due to the downstream construction. The output of Qinghai Qiaotou was reduced, mainly due to the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production; the shutdown of Chinalco Liancheng carbon and the discontinuation of carbon in Chinalco Lanzhou were currently digesting the main inventory.
Fushun Aluminum's new carbon project (350,000 tons) roasting furnace was successfully ignited and started. It is expected that the products will be burnt and burned first in the second quarter of 2019.
Cost: Petroleum coke: Pre-baked anode petroleum coke: This week, the petroleum coke market continued to perform poorly, and some refining prices fluctuated. However, due to the overall performance of the downstream industry, the petroleum coke market has no rebound expectation. This week, Sinopec's high sulfur coke prices continued to fall by 30-80 yuan / ton; PetroChina all stabilized this week, CNOOC Taizhou Petrochemical fell 100 yuan / ton this week, Binzhou Zhonghai asphalt increased 70 yuan / ton. The price of local coking was slightly increased by RMB 20-80/ton.
Supply: According to statistics, in November 2018, China's prebaked anode market totaled 1,546,900 tons (including commercial anodes of 767,500 tons, supporting anodes of 779,400 tons), a decrease of 46,500 tons or 2.89% from October. The main reason for the decline in production: the commercial production of enterprises in the main pre-baked anode production area in Henan Province, the output of most enterprises on the basis of 50% of production, the output will be reduced by half, and even the output of individual enterprises in November, resulting in a decrease in the market anode anode commercial supply; In the supporting anode, the aluminum Lanzhou and Liancheng carbon plants were discontinued, and the aluminum plant in Qinghai reduced production, and the supply of enterprises in individual regions decreased.
Production cuts: Sichuan Guangyuan Qixing Aluminum Industry lost 36,000 tons. Chongqing Guofeng Industrial lost 12,000 tons of losses. Shanxi Jinneng Wuzhou Energy Aluminum Silicon Alloy Co., Ltd. maintains 30 sets of 220KA electrolytic tanks, involving a production capacity of 18,000 tons. The loss reduction of Shanxi Huasheng Aluminum Industry is expected to be around 30,000 tons. Xinjiang Tianlong Mining's 45,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity has withdrawn, and its current operating capacity is 200,000 tons.
Shandong Weiqiao aluminum power production peak production cut, is expected to reduce production by about 10%, is expected to be completed by the end of December. The hydropower maintenance in western Qinghai has reduced production and has reduced production by 100,000 tons. Qinghai Xinheng Aluminum Industry lost money, and the remaining 141 sets of 400KA electrolytic cells were shut down. Shandong Huayu Aluminum Electric has reduced production by 50,000 tons. Gansu Liancheng Aluminum Industry did not reach an agreement due to the price of electricity. It was decided that the remaining 168 sets of 500KA electrolyzers should be shut down, involving a production capacity of 220,000 tons. At present, 59 units have been suspended, and the suspension of production is awaiting negotiations. Shanxi Taiyuan Dong Aluminum Aluminum Co., Ltd. was shut down completely, and its production capacity was 85,000 tons before the production was stopped.
Gansu Dongxing Aluminum Co., Ltd. plans to reduce production by 300,000 tons due to the planned inspection and correction. At present, Jiayuguan Branch has reduced production by 80,000 tons, and its current operating capacity is 1.24 million tons. The Minxi Branch has reduced production by 100,000 and its current operating capacity is 230,000 tons. Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch slightly reduced production due to tight supply of electricity. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has stopped production of 100,000 tons. Linfeng Aluminium Power Co., Ltd. all stopped production. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. actively reduced its production by 100,000 tons, and currently starts around 300,000 tons.
Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power is expected to shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons due to environmental inspections. The current operating capacity is 130,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum has all ceased production, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons and a production capacity of 60,000 tons before the shutdown. Henan Shenhuo (Group) Co., Ltd. reduced production by about 120,000 tons and currently has a production capacity of 210,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. stopped. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum is expected to withdraw from the market in 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons. The Chinalco Guizhou branch retreated to the city and the production capacity of 150,000 tons has been reduced.
Resumption of production: Inner Mongolia Jinlian gradually began to resume production. Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. has resumed production of 60,000 tons, and will resume production of 50,000 tons. Henan Wanji Aluminum has a current operating capacity of 550,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production. Yichuan Power Group Yugang Longquan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. has repaired some of the troughs, and the rest of the production has been completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons.
New production: Shaanxi Meixin began production on December 12. Guangxi Hualei new materials completed in four stages of 100,000 tons and 12.25. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan is expected to continue production in late December. Shanxi Chinalco China Resources, the power problem to maintain the current capacity of 100,000 tons during the year. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in Guangxi Debao 100 Mine was started. It is expected that the second series will be 125,000 tons in early January 2019. Guangxi Tianlin Baiyuan Aluminum Industry started a series of 125,000 tons in early 2018 and has been completed.
Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons of production, and the second phase has not yet started production. The current funding problem has been reduced. Guangxi Suyuan Investment's second series of 100,000 tons began to continue construction, and it is expected to start production in January 2019. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. has completed production in early May and now has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. The 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been completed and put into production. Guizhou Xingren Denggao new materials, the first phase of 125,000 tons of electricity problems again delayed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials on the 21st, the remaining 88 sets of the second plant began to start, and is currently completed.
Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and has completed production of 200,000 tons. Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year and has been completed. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. started production on September 5, and has completed production. Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. started power supply in late July and put into operation 100,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum is expected to start production of 150,000 tons, and it is expected that production will not be completed within 2018.
Market outlook: Cost support is difficult to improve in the short term, and raw material prices are likely to be stable. As the winter continues to deepen, the frequency of heavy pollution weather may increase, and emergency management and control of production enterprises may be implemented. The new ignition prebaked anode enterprise is expected to release its output in 2019, with no impact on market supply in the short term. The downstream electrolytic aluminum price has “falling down”. This week, Sichuan Qixing took the initiative to reduce production and the downstream consumption gradually narrowed. In view of the current market conditions, it is expected that the price of the anode will be weakly developed in the short term.