China's aluminum prebaked anode market overview (2018.09.21)

(2018.09.21) This week, the mainstream transaction price of China's prebaked anode market remained stable. The price of raw material petroleum coke was lowered in September, and the decline was now stable, with limited support for anode prices. With the gradual approach of the heating season, the market has a high enthusiasm for the production restriction policy. The ultra-low emissions in Henan will be checked and accepted next week. The Zibo region in Shandong is the first to issue a notice. The enterprises with ultra-low emission standards can be exempted from production. Other regional policies Will be introduced one after another.

Knowledge point analysis: What is a prebaked anode? The prebaked anode is made of petroleum coke and pitch coke, and the coal bitumen is made of a binder, and is used as a pre-baked aluminum electrolytic cell as an anode material. This carbon block has been calcined and has a stable geometry, so it is also called prebaked anode carbon block, which is also known as carbon anode for aluminum electrolysis.

Construction conditions: four enterprises in Hebei, Hebei Hongke, Hebei Quxin carbon, normal production, Zhongdong plans to switch production, Xinfengsheng block for Qinghai and Feng, Hebei region for the national three, the national five car transport restrictions Reinforcement; Shanxi area is weak, Danyuan roasting is open, partial electrode is made, Guan Aluminum plans to transform the enterprise, and plans to make electrode paste or roasting electrode has not been determined; Hubei area is strictly inspected, Hubei Tailai carbon production is reduced, and environmental protection equipment is being reformed. The company has a small amount of inventory; in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, the company has reduced production due to environmental protection; in Guizhou, Chinalco Guizhou carbon plant has changed; in Henan, some enterprises have reduced production, Boda electric porcelain processing electrode, roasting a small amount, Huihao environmental protection equipment During the renovation, the furnace was shut down for maintenance in August, and Henan Yuhui and Zhengzhou Great Wall were suspended. In the Gongyi area, Jinyu started about 50%, and the bamboo forest was processed outside the bamboo block. Individual enterprises in the main producing area of ​​Shandong Province also actively reduced production, Shandong Liangshan Wanda raw material warehouse transformation, production cuts. In the southwestern part of the country, some enterprises have reduced production, and the carbon blocks of individual anodes are upgraded due to environmental protection reasons or the electrolytic cell is overhauled.

In terms of news:  [2018] No. 17 "Notice on submitting the plan for the implementation of the peak production regulation of industrial enterprises during the heating period of 2018-2019" indicates that the carbon enterprises used for electrolytic aluminum limit production by 50%. In terms of production line, stable and ultra-low emission (particle, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide emission concentration is not higher than 10, 35, 50 mg / cubic meter respectively), can not limit production; non-ferrous recycling industry casting process limited production of 50%, Based on the production line.

Cost: petroleum coke, petroleum coke for prebaked anodes, this week, the price of petroleum coke market has slowed down, the willingness to approach the refinery's petroleum coke clearing warehouse is increasing, and the price of petroleum coke is mostly maintained at low price. This week's main business The refinery's coke price was stable, and individual refineries were slightly adjusted. In detail, Sinopec's refineries only partially reduced the price of coke in South China by 40 yuan/ton this week. The price of CNPC's northwestern region was raised by 50-100 yuan/ton this week. CNOOC stabilized this week and the price of this year's refinery was lowered. The concentration is concentrated at 50-150 yuan / ton.

Supply: According to Baichuan Information, in August 2018, China's total output of prebaked anodes was 1,543,600 tons, of which commercial anodes were 751,500 tons, and supporting anodes were 799,800 tons. The increase was 0.77 million tons in July, an increase of 0.5%. . In August, the output increased slightly compared with the output in July. Some enterprises in the Gongyi area of ​​Henan resumed production and the production capacity was released. The overall output increased compared with July. However, the enterprises supporting the anodes have stopped production and repaired zero production, resulting in a small increase in the overall supply of the market.

Downstream demand:

Production cuts: Henan Zhongfu and Linfeng A&M actively reduced production by 30% due to losses. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power Environmental Inspection, shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons, and now operating capacity of 130,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum Co., Ltd. all stopped production. Chinalco Liancheng reduced production by about 160,000 tons due to electricity price problems. Henan Shenhuo (Group) Co., Ltd. reduced production by about 110,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons due to the indicator problem. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Co., Ltd. all stopped, and the index was transferred to Meixin. The Chinalco Guizhou branch retreated to the city and the production capacity of 150,000 tons has been reduced. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum Industry is expected to implement around 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons.

Resumption of production: Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. Linfeng Aluminium, in addition to the wheel repair, the rest of the production capacity is basically resumed. Yichuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. Longquan part of the trough was overhauled, and the rest of the production was completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. began to resume production in late April, and resumed production in late April. The resumption of production was completed and the rest of the repairs were completed. Henan Wanji Aluminum has a current operating capacity of 570,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production.

New investment: Shaanxi Meixin began commissioning equipment on September 15 and is expected to start production in November. The 125,000 tons of network fee in the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been resolved, and it is expected to be completed in mid-October. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum started production on September 5th. The remaining 88 troughs of Huayun New Materials on the 21st of the second plant began to start, and are expected to be completed in late September. Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production to around 150,000 tons during the year. Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and plans to start production of 200,000 tons. The problem of 125,000 tons of electricity in the first phase of Guizhou Xingren Denggao New Material was suspended again and is expected to continue in early November. The first phase of Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry has completed 100,000 tons, and the second phase has not yet started production. Guangxi Hualei new materials four stages of 100,000 tons due to unit maintenance delayed production until October. Mengtai Aluminum is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan Metal Co., Ltd., with a current operating capacity of 90,000 tons, is now temporarily put into operation due to the price of electricity. Shanxi Chinalco China Resources currently operates at a capacity of 80,000 tons and is temporarily stable. Guangxi Suyuan II series began to build 100,000 tons, and it is expected to start production at the end of October. Guangxi Debao Baiyuan Aluminum Industry has a series of 100,000 tons of current operating capacity of 65,000 tons, which is expected to be completed in October. The 100,000 tons of aluminum in the Tianlin Bailing Mine in Guangxi began production in early May 2018 and is currently in slow production. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum has a production capacity of 500,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. is expected to start production in October 2018.

Market outlook: By the end of the third quarter, the price of prebaked anodes experienced a total loss in the first half of the year, and the price recovery gradually stimulated industry confidence. The price of raw material petroleum coke was moderate, the price of coal tar pitch was stable, and the support of anode cost was limited. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises were subject to the cost of self-provided power plants, and the cost would be reduced. However, enterprises are now stocking winter inventory, which is good for anode consumption. Individual supporting anode factory overhaul, external anode, increase anode market demand, it is expected that the anode price may still increase the price, the range is about 100 yuan / ton.

Remarks: At present, domestic and foreign electrolytic aluminum production enterprises have large gaps in the procurement requirements for prebaked anodes. Foreign large-scale electrolytic aluminum production enterprises seek to maximize the comprehensive benefits of electrolytic aluminum production. Therefore, in the process of purchased prebaked anodes, prebaked anodes are required. There are many indicators of quality; domestic electrolytic aluminum producers pay more attention to the price of prebaked anodes, and their quality requirements are relatively low. So there is a gap in the price between the two.

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