20181224 This week, the mainstream price of China's prebaked anode market is stable. The price of coal tar pitch on the raw material side is up, supporting the cost of prebaked anode; the supply end: in the deep heating season, the environmental protection situation is still tense, the enterprises in Zhengzhou, Henan Province are shut down, and it is expected to resume production in mid-February next year. The production of other cities is currently stable.

The overall production performance of enterprises in the main producing area of ​​Shandong Province is normal. The enterprises in the limited production areas have implemented limited production, but the proportion of limited production is small. The enterprises in Jinan are currently producing normally; the decline of downstream electrolytic aluminum prices continues, and the possibility of mitigation in the short term is small. As a result, the cost pressure is high, and individual companies participate in the restriction of production, and the market decreases production.

Start-up situation: Production: Shandong area: Binzhou, Zibo, Liaocheng area enterprises implement production restriction measures, Shandong Jinan and other places of normal production, but the overall safety inspection, environmental inspection is strict; Hebei area: Hebei Hongke normal production, exempt from peak Hebei Quxin carbon production limited to 20%, Xinfeng only birth block; Shanxi area: low start; Jiangsu area: enterprise production is normal, environmental protection pressure is still relatively large.

Hubei area: strict inspection, Hubei Tailai carbon is mainly processed, molding has stopped, currently only calcined coke, Yangxin Liyu carbon is suspended in environmental protection transformation; Henan region: Zhengzhou area enterprises stop production, expected to resume production in mid-February; Luoyang, Jiaozuo, Sanmenxia enterprises can be exempted from ultra-low. The supply of carbon blocks for individual anodes of the supporting anodes was slightly reduced due to the downstream construction. The output of Qinghai Qiaotou was reduced, mainly due to the reduction of electrolytic aluminum production; the shutdown of Chinalco Liancheng carbon and the discontinuation of carbon in Chinalco Lanzhou were currently digesting the main inventory.

Cost aspect:
Petroleum Coke or calcined petroleum coke(CPC) for prebaked anodes: This week, the petroleum coke market continued its sluggish trend, and the market price continued to decline steadily. The main reason for the impact on coke market trading was the poor downstream demand and the tight capital of enterprises. The price of petroleum coke in Sinopec's refinery was stable this week. Only the refinery's coke price was slightly lowered by 20-30 yuan/ton. CNPC's refineries were down by 50-80 yuan/ton, and CNOOC's refineries lowered 30-70 yuan. /Ton. The mainstream price of local coking was down by RMB 20-70/ton.

Coal tar pitch: This week, the coal tar pitch market is actively pushing up, and the upgraded bitumen is 4000-4500 yuan/ton. The raw coal tar continues to rise sharply, and the cost is supported. The enterprises in Shandong have a limited production operation, and the spot supply is small. It is expected that the coal tar pitch market will continue to rise in the next week, and the actual transaction price will increase by a large load compared with this week, or at least 200-300 yuan / ton.

Supply: According to statistics, in November 2018, China's prebaked anode market totaled 1,546,900 tons (including commercial anodes of 767,500 tons, supporting anodes of 779,400 tons), a decrease of 46,500 tons or 2.89% from October. The main reason for the decline in production: the commercial production of enterprises in the main pre-baked anode production area in Henan Province, the output of most enterprises on the basis of 50% of production, the output will be reduced by half, and even the output of individual enterprises in November, resulting in a decrease in the market anode anode commercial supply; In the supporting anode, the aluminum Lanzhou and Liancheng carbon plants were discontinued, and the aluminum plant in Qinghai reduced production, and the supply of enterprises in individual regions decreased.

Production cuts: Sichuan Guangyuan Qixing Aluminum Industry lost 36,000 tons. Chongqing Guofeng Industrial lost 12,000 tons of losses. Shanxi Jinneng Wuzhou Energy Aluminum Silicon Alloy Co., Ltd. maintains 30 sets of 220KA electrolytic tanks, involving a production capacity of 18,000 tons. The loss reduction of Shanxi Huasheng Aluminum Industry is expected to be around 30,000 tons. Xinjiang Tianlong Mining's 45,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity has withdrawn, and its current operating capacity is 200,000 tons. Shandong Weiqiao aluminum power production peak production cut, is expected to reduce production by about 10%, is expected to be completed by the end of December. The hydropower maintenance in western Qinghai has reduced production and has reduced production by 100,000 tons.

Qinghai Xinheng Aluminum Industry lost money, and the remaining 141 sets of 400KA electrolytic cells were shut down. Shandong Huayu Aluminum Electric has reduced production by 50,000 tons. Gansu Liancheng Aluminum Industry did not reach an agreement due to the price of electricity. It was decided that the remaining 168 sets of 500KA electrolyzers should be shut down, involving a production capacity of 220,000 tons. At present, 59 units have been suspended, and the suspension of production is awaiting negotiations. Shanxi Taiyuan Dong Aluminum Aluminum Co., Ltd. was shut down completely, and its production capacity was 85,000 tons before the production was stopped. Gansu Dongxing Aluminum Co., Ltd. plans to reduce production by 300,000 tons due to the planned inspection and correction. At present, Jiayuguan Branch has reduced production by 80,000 tons, and its current operating capacity is 1.24 million tons. The Minxi Branch has reduced production by 100,000 and its current operating capacity is 230,000 tons.

Dengdian Group Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. and Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch slightly reduced production due to tight supply of electricity. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum has stopped production of 100,000 tons. Linfeng Aluminium Power Co., Ltd. all stopped production. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. actively reduced its production by 100,000 tons, and currently starts around 300,000 tons. Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminium Power is expected to shut down 65 units, involving a production capacity of 40,000 tons due to environmental inspections. The current operating capacity is 130,000 tons. Zouping Aluminum has all ceased production, involving a production capacity of 140,000 tons and a production capacity of 60,000 tons before the shutdown.

Henan Shenhuo (Group) Co., Ltd. reduced production by about 120,000 tons and currently has a production capacity of 210,000 tons. Xinjiang Oriental hopes to reduce production to 800,000 tons. Shaanxi Tongchuan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. stopped. Huo Coal Tongshun Aluminum is expected to withdraw from the market in 2020 due to losses, intra-group replacement demand, or production cuts but not explicitly reduced production by 115,000 tons. The Chinalco Guizhou branch retreated to the city and the production capacity of 150,000 tons has been reduced.

Resumption of production: Inner Mongolia Jinlian gradually began to resume production. Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum has basically completed the resumption of production and partial rotation of the trough. Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. has resumed production of 60,000 tons, and will resume production of 50,000 tons. Henan Wanji Aluminum has a current operating capacity of 550,000 tons. Henan Yongdeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. (Yangcheng) Branch completed the resumption of production. Yichuan Power Group Yugang Longquan Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. has repaired some of the troughs, and the rest of the production has been completed. The current production capacity is 600,000 tons.

New production: Shaanxi Meixin began production on December 12. Guangxi Hualei new materials completed in four stages of 100,000 tons and 12.25. Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan is expected to continue production in late December. Shanxi Chinalco China Resources, the power problem to maintain the current capacity of 100,000 tons during the year. A series of 125,000 tons of aluminum in Guangxi Debao 100 Mine was started. It is expected that the second series will be 125,000 tons in early January 2019.

Guangxi Tianlin Baiyuan Aluminum Industry started a series of 125,000 tons in early 2018 and has been completed. Gansu Zhongrui Aluminum Industry Phase I has completed 100,000 tons of production, and the second phase has not yet started production. The current funding problem has been reduced. Guangxi Suyuan Investment's second series of 100,000 tons began to continue construction, and it is expected to start production in January 2019. Guangxi Laibin Yinhai Aluminum Co., Ltd. has completed production in early May and now has a production capacity of 500,000 tons.

The 125,000 tons of the fourth section of Guizhou Huaren Aluminum Industry has been completed and put into production. Guizhou Xingren Denggao new materials, the first phase of 125,000 tons of electricity problems again delayed. Inner Mongolia Huayun New Materials on the 21st, the remaining 88 sets of the second plant began to start, and is currently completed. Baotou Xinhengfeng Energy started production in August 2018 and has completed production of 200,000 tons.

Mengtai Aluminum in Baotou City is expected to complete production of 250,000 tons within the year and has been completed. Yingkou Xintai Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. started production on September 5, and has completed production. Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. started power supply in late July and put into operation 100,000 tons. Heqing Yixin Aluminum is expected to start production of 150,000 tons, and it is expected that production will not be completed within 2018.

Market outlook: raw material petroleum coke price is weak, rebound conditions are limited, coal tar pitch prices are currently rising at a high level, but the anode price support is limited; supply side: the overall performance of the current production enterprises is stable, most of the ignition products in the second half of the year After 19 years of release, the overall supply status will maintain steady state development. Due to the reduction of some enterprises in the downstream electrolytic aluminum market, the consumption of anodes is limited, and the inventory of individual enterprises at the end of the year is consolidating, the procurement strength is slightly reduced, and the overall negative anode consumption.

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